The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intrusions of warm and moist air, can effectively drive weather extremes over the Arctic and trigger subsequent impact on sea ice and climate. What controls the observed multi-decadal Arctic AR trends remains unclear. Here, using multiple sources of observations and model experiments, we find that, contrary to the uniform positive trend in climate simulations, the observed Arctic AR frequency increases by twice as much over the Atlantic sector compared to the Pacific sector in 1981-2021. This discrepancy can be reconciled by the observed positive-to-negative phase shift of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the negative-to-positive phase shift of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which increase and reduce Arctic ARs over the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, respectively. Removing the influence of the IPO and AMO can reduce the projection uncertainties in near-future Arctic AR trends by about 24%, which is important for constraining projection of Arctic warming and the timing of an ice-free Arctic.

Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes.

Climate change can alter wetland extent and function, but such impacts are perplexing. Here, changes in wetland characteristics over North America from 25° to 53° North are projected under two climate scenarios using a state-of-the-science Earth system model. At the continental scale, annual wetland area decreases by ~10% (6%-14%) under the high emission scenario, but spatiotemporal changes vary, reaching up to ±50%. As the dominant driver of these changes shifts from precipitation to temperature in the higher emission scenario, wetlands undergo substantial drying during summer season when biotic processes peak. The projected disruptions to wetland seasonality cycles imply further impacts on biodiversity in major wetland habitats of upper Mississippi, Southeast Canada, and the Everglades. Furthermore, wetlands are projected to significantly shrink in cold regions due to the increased infiltration as warmer temperature reduces soil ice. The large dependence of the projections on climate change scenarios underscores the importance of emission mitigation to sustaining wetland ecosystems in the future.

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset.

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 40,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with the observed spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale TC statistics. Specifically along the coast, spatial variations in TC crossing probability and extreme winds upon landfall are well-reproduced by RAFT with R-squared values of 0.81 and 0.73, respectively. In summary, the synthetic TC database constructed with RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for the robust assessment of North Atlantic TC wind and rainfall risks.

Southern Hemisphere dominates recent decline in global water availability.

Global land water underpins livelihoods, socioeconomic development, and ecosystems. It remains unclear how water availability has changed in recent decades. Using an ensemble of observations, we quantified global land water availability over the past two decades. We show that the Southern Hemisphere has dominated the declining trend in global water availability from 2001 to 2020. The significant decrease occurs mainly in South America, southwestern Africa, and northwestern Australia. In the Northern Hemisphere, the complex regional increasing and decreasing trends cancel each other, resulting in a negligible hemispheric trend. The variability and trend in water availability in the Southern Hemisphere are largely driven by precipitation associated with climate modes, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This study highlights their dominant role in controlling global water availability.

Aerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality.

To mitigate climate warming, many countries have committed to achieve carbon neutrality in the mid-21st century. Here, we assess the global impacts of changing greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols, and tropospheric ozone (O3) following a carbon neutrality pathway on climate and extreme weather events individually using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). The results suggest that the future aerosol reductions significantly contribute to climate warming and increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weathers toward carbon neutrality and aerosol impacts far outweigh those of GHGs and tropospheric O3. It reverses the knowledge that the changing GHGs dominate the future climate changes as predicted in the middle of the road pathway. Therefore, substantial reductions in GHGs and tropospheric O3 are necessary to reach the 1.5 °C warming target and mitigate the harmful effects of concomitant aerosol reductions on climate and extreme weather events under carbon neutrality in the future.

A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming.

Light-absorbing particles (LAP) deposited on seasonal snowpack can result in snow darkening, earlier snowmelt, and regional climate change. However, their future evolution and contributions to snowpack change relative to global warming remain unclear. Here, using Earth System Model simulations, we project significantly reduced black carbon deposition by 2081-2100, which reduces the December-May average LAP-induced radiative forcing in snow over the Northern Hemisphere from 1.3 Wm-2 during 1995-2014 to 0.65 (SSP126) and 0.49 (SSP585) Wm-2. We quantify separately the contributions of climate change and LAP evolution on future snowpack and demonstrate that projected LAP changes in snow over the Tibetan Plateau will alleviate future snowpack loss due to climate change by 52.1 ± 8.0% and 8.0 ± 1.1% at the end of the century for the two scenarios, mainly due to reduced black carbon contamination. Our findings highlight a cleaner snow future and its benefits for future water supply from snowmelt especially under the sustainable development pathway of SSP126.

Future precipitation increase constrained by climatological pattern of cloud effect.

The fractional increase in global mean precipitation ([Formula: see text]) is a first-order measure of the hydrological cycle intensification under anthropogenic warming. However, [Formula: see text] varies by a factor of more than three among model projections, hindering credible assessments of the associated climate impacts. The uncertainty in [Formula: see text] stems from uncertainty in both hydrological sensitivity (global mean precipitation increase per unit warming) and climate sensitivity (global mean temperature increase per forcing). Here, by investigating hydrological and climate sensitivities in a unified surface-energy-balance perspective, we find that both sensitivities are significantly correlated with surface shortwave cloud feedback, which is further linked to the climatological pattern of cloud shortwave effect. The observed pattern of cloud effect thus constrains both sensitivities and consequently constrains [Formula: see text]. The 5%-95% uncertainty range of [Formula: see text] from 1979-2005 to 2080-2100 under the high-emission (moderate-emission) scenario is constrained from 6.34[Formula: see text]3.53% (4.19[Formula: see text]2.28%) in the raw ensemble-model projection to 7.03[Formula: see text]2.59% (4.63[Formula: see text]1.71%). The constraint thus suggests a higher most-likely [Formula: see text] and reduces the uncertainty by ~25%, providing valuable information for impact assessments.

A longitudinal environmental surveillance study for SARS-CoV-2 from the emergency department of a teaching hospital in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Understanding factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 exposure risk in the hospital setting may help improve infection control measures for prevention. AIM: To monitor SARS-CoV-2 exposure risk among healthcare workers and to identify risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 detection. METHODS: Surface and air samples were collected longitudinally over 14 months spanning 2020-2022 at the Emergency Department (ED) of a teaching hospital in Hong Kong. SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA was detected by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. Ecological factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 detection were analysed by logistic regression. A sero-epidemiological study was conducted in January-April 2021 to monitor SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence. A questionnaire was used to collect information on job nature and use of personal protective equipment (PPE) of the participants. FINDINGS: SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected at low frequencies from surfaces (0.7%, N = 2562) and air samples (1.6%, N = 128). Crowding was identified as the main risk factor, as weekly ED attendance (OR = 1.002, P=0.04) and sampling after peak-hours of ED attendance (OR = 5.216, P=0.03) were associated with the detection of SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA from surfaces. The low exposure risk was corroborated by the zero seropositive rate among 281 participants by April 2021. CONCLUSION: Crowding may introduce SARS-CoV-2 into the ED through increased attendances. Multiple factors may have contributed to the low contamination of SARS-CoV-2 in the ED, including hospital infection control measures for screening ED attendees, high PPE compliance among healthcare workers, and various public health and social measures implemented to reduce community transmission in Hong Kong where a dynamic zero COVID-19 policy was adopted.

Robust projection of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall based on dynamical modes of variability.

The Asian monsoon provides the freshwater that a large population in Asia depends on, but how anthropogenic climate warming may alter this key water source remains unclear. This is partly due to the prevailing point-wise assessment of climate projections, even though climate change patterns are inherently organized by dynamics intrinsic to the climate system. Here, we assess the future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation by projecting the precipitation from several large ensemble simulations and CMIP6 simulations onto the two leading dynamical modes of internal variability. The result shows a remarkable agreement among the ensembles on the increasing trends and the increasing daily variability in both dynamical modes, with the projection pattern emerging as early as the late 2030 s. The increase of the daily variability of the modes heralds more monsoon-related hydrological extremes over some identifiable East Asian regions in the coming decades.

Increased U.S. coastal hurricane risk under climate change.

Several pathways for how climate change may influence the U.S. coastal hurricane risk have been proposed, but the physical mechanisms and possible connections between various pathways remain unclear. Here, future projections of hurricane activity (1980-2100), downscaled from multiple climate models using a synthetic hurricane model, show an enhanced hurricane frequency for the Gulf and lower East coast regions. The increase in coastal hurricane frequency is driven primarily by changes in steering flow, which can be attributed to the development of an upper-level cyclonic circulation over the western Atlantic. The latter is part of the baroclinic stationary Rossby waves forced mainly by increased diabatic heating in the eastern tropical Pacific, a robust signal across the multimodel ensemble. Last, these heating changes also play a key role in decreasing wind shear near the U.S. coast, further aggravating coastal hurricane risk enhanced by the physically connected steering flow changes.

Paroxysmal slow-wave discharges in a model of absence seizure are coupled to gamma oscillations in the thalamocortical and limbic systems.

OBJECTIVE: Using the gamma-butyrolactone (GBL) model of absence seizures in Long-Evans rats, this study investigated if gamma (30-160 Hz) activity were cross-frequency modulated by the 2-6 Hz slow-wave discharges induced by GBL in the limbic system. We hypothesized that inactivation of the nucleus reuniens (RE), which projects to frontal cortex (FC) and hippocampus, would affect the cross-frequency coupling of gamma (γ) in different brain regions. METHODS: Local field potentials were recorded by electrodes implanted in the FC, ventrolateral thalamus (TH), basolateral amygdala (BLA), nucleus accumbens (NAC), and dorsal hippocampus (CA1) of behaving rats. At each electrode, the coupling between the γ amplitude envelope to the phase of the 2-6 Hz slow-waves (SW) was measured by modulation index (MI) or cross-frequency coherence (CFC) of γ amplitude with SW. In separate experiments, the RE was infused with saline or GABAA receptor agonist, muscimol, before the injection of GBL. RESULTS: Following GBL injection, an increase in MI and CFC of SW to γ1 (30-58 Hz), γ2 (62-100 Hz) and γ3 (100-160 Hz) bands was observed at the FC, hippocampus and BLA, with significant increase in SW-γ1 and SW-γ3 coupling at TH, and increase in peak SW-γ1 CFC at NAC. Strong SW-γ modulation was also found during baseline immobility high-voltage spindles. Muscimol inactivation of RE, as compared to saline infusion, significantly decreased SW-γ1 CFC in the FC, and peak frequency of the SW-γ1 CFC in the thalamus, but did not significantly alter SW-γ CFCs in the hippocampus, BLA or NAC. SIGNIFICANCE: The paroxysmal 2-6 Hz SW discharges, a hallmark of absence seizure, significantly modulate γ activity in the hippocampus, BLA and NAC, suggesting a modulation of limbic functions. RE inactivation disrupted the SW modulation of FC and TH, partly supporting our hypothesis that RE participates in the modulation of SW discharges.

Muscarinic and N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor blockade reveal differences in hippocampal local field potentials in mice with low cholinergic tone.

We hypothesize that hippocampal local field potentials in acetylcholine (ACh)-deficient mutant mice, compared to wild-type (WT) mice, will show lower sensitivity to muscarinic cholinergic antagonist scopolamine (5 mg/kg i.p.) but higher sensitivity to NMDA receptor antagonist 3-(2-carboxypiperazin-4-yl)propyl-1-phosphonic acid (CPP, 10 mg/kg i.p.). Recordings were made during walk and awake-immobility (IMM) in WT mice, and in mice with forebrain knockout (KO) of the vesicular acetylcholine transporter (VAChT) gene, or heterozygous knockdown of VAChT gene (KD). Scopolamine or CPP did not significantly alter walk theta frequency, which was higher in KD than WT/KO mice. Scopolamine decreased theta power peak rise during walk in WT/KD mice but not in KO mice, while CPP suppressed theta peak rise more in WT/KO mice than KD mice. During IMM, scopolamine decreased gamma1 (γ1, 30-58 Hz) power more in KD/WT mice than KO mice, while delta (1-4 Hz) power and delta-gamma cross-frequency coherence (CFC) were increased in all mouse groups during IMM or walk. During walk, scopolamine increased delta and beta (13-30 Hz) power and decreased gamma2 (γ2, 62-100 Hz) power and theta-γ2 CFC more in WT/KD than KO mice. Theta-γ2, but not theta-γ1, CFC increased with theta-peak-frequency in WT/KD mice, and was suppressed by scopolamine at high theta (8-10 Hz) frequency; theta-γ2 CFC in KO mice was not significantly altered by scopolamine. CPP decreased beta and gamma power more in KD/KO mice compared to WT mice, while delta power and delta-gamma CFC were increased in all mouse groups. ACh deficiency exacerbates the attenuation of beta and gamma power by CPP. We conclude that both muscarinic and NMDA transmission contribute toward hippocampal theta, beta, and gamma power, and a decrease in gamma power or theta-gamma CFC may be associated with loss of arousal and cognitive functions.

Medial Septum Modulates Consciousness and Psychosis-Related Behaviors Through Hippocampal Gamma Activity.

Abnormally high-amplitude hippocampal gamma activity (30-100 Hz) in behaving animals is seen after a hippocampal seizure, following injection of phencyclidine (PCP) or ketamine, and transiently in a delirium stage during induction of general anesthesia. High-amplitude hippocampal gamma activity in behaving rats is associated with hyperactive behavior and impairment in sensorimotor gating and sensory gating. The medial septum is necessary for the high-amplitude gamma activity and abnormal behaviors observed following a hippocampal seizure or injection of PCP/ketamine. Glutamatergic projection of the hippocampus to the nucleus accumbens (NAC) and dopaminergic transmission in NAC is necessary for abnormal behaviors. Large hippocampal gamma waves are suggested to contribute to seizure-induced automatism following temporal lobe seizures, and the schizophrenia-like symptoms induced by PCP/ketamine. Low-amplitude gamma activity is found during general anesthesia, associated with loss of consciousness in humans and loss of righting reflex in animals. Local inactivation or lesion of the medial septum, NAC, and brain areas connected to the septohippocampal-NAC system attenuates the increase in hippocampal gamma and associated behavioral disruptions induced by hippocampal seizure or PCP/ketamine. Inactivation or lesion of the septohippocampal-NAC system decreases the dose of anesthetic necessary for gamma decrease and loss of consciousness in animals. Thus, it is proposed that the septohippocampal-NAC system serves to control consciousness and the behavioral hyperactivity and neural dysfunctions during psychosis.

Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment.

The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design.

Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), episodic periods of abnormally high sea surface temperature (SST), severely affect marine ecosystems. Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) cover ~22% of the global ocean but account for 95% of global fisheries catches. Yet how climate change affects MHWs over LMEs remains unknown, because such LMEs are confined to the coast where low-resolution climate models are known to have biases. Here, using a high-resolution Earth system model and applying a "future threshold" that considers MHWs as anomalous warming above the long-term mean warming of SSTs, we find that future intensity and annual days of MHWs over majority of the LMEs remain higher than in the present-day climate. Better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables simulation of more realistic MHWs than low-resolution models. These increases in MHWs under global warming poses a serious threat to LMEs, even if resident organisms could adapt fully to the long-term mean warming.